Sure, Shields and Akiyama was a disappointing affair, mostly due to Jake’s stubborn refusal to work on his boxing (and that’s coming from a guy who’s actually one of his frequent defenders), but the rest of the card was top to bottom excitement and intrigue. Even Bader’s dismantling of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was interesting, even if it was for all the wrong reasons, chief among them the fact that the Japanese fans were booing Rampage by the third round. For those of us that have some working knowledge of the history of MMA in Japan and the behavior and tone of Japanese fans at live fights, that was a surreal moment.

Most of the post-fight talk, though, focused on the five round decision that made former WEC champion and standout Benson Henderson the new UFC Lightweight Champion.

After the fight a lot of fighters and pundits took to twitter to say they thought Edgar had won the fight. They had an ally in UFC President Dana White, who said as much during his post-event interview with Ariel Helwani.

But did he? I’m not so sure.

I went into the fight legitimately torn because I genuinely like and admire both fighters. But I found myself cheering for Edgar as soon as they came nose to nose and the size discrepancy between the two fully sunk in. Henderson, even with a very strict diet and training regiment to ensure a proper weight cut that doesn’t sacrifice endurance, is on the (much) larger end of 155 and wouldn’t look out of place at Welterweight (he would, in fact, be as big or bigger than all but the most freakishly large Thiago Alves types). Edgar, on the other hand, is like BJ Penn at 170, in that he’s fighting a full weight class above where he probably should be, and word has it he cuts little to no weight and could easily make Featherweight if he chose to.

This made sitting and watching objectively to be an exercise in will and determination. How could I not watch what Edgar was doing to survive the onslaught of a much, much larger opponent, particularly since I’ve expressed in this space before how underappreciated he is? Edgar was, as he has been for some time now, exemplary of all things that make MMA truly great: courageous, masterful, and technically marvelous.  That he kept his cool and fought for three rounds with a closed eye and a broken nose from a spot-on upkick from Henderson made his performance all the more memorable and admirable.

Unfortunately, I felt he was still (narrowly) outstruck by Henderson in all but two rounds. At the end of the fight, I had it scored for Henderson by a score of 48-47. Two of the three judges agreed with me, with the third giving it 49-46 for Henderson. An incorrect judgement in my opinion, but not an absurd one given what we saw from both men. Fight Metric, a valuable if still flawed resource (through no fault of their own since it’s impossible to compute intangibles like aggression and Octagon control), broke it down along the same lines as that lone judge.

It wasn’t a robbery, and I’m glad to see that nobody’s claiming as such. I don’t even know if it was close enough, on paper, to warrant an immediate rematch. I do however think that it’s only fair that the UFC take the size discrepancy and heart Edgar showed into account when considering who Henderson’s next opponent should be. Everyone’s eager to see Henderson try to avenge his WEC Lightweight Championship loss to Anthony Pettis based solely on the famous “Showtime” kick moment from the final round of that fight. Yet I’m hesitant to say that Pettis deserves it over any other contender in the bottlenecked division. The head kick knockout of Joe Lauzon earlier in the evening was impressive, but injuries and circumstances have kept Lauzon in the very bottom rung of the top ten. That makes Pettis’s last three fights a knockout win over a perennial gatekeeper, a very close split decision win over Jeremy Stephens, and a decisive loss to Clay Guida. If we’re going to look at it objectively, that’s not a contender’s resume.

Time and fan reaction will tell if we see Henderson/Edgar II or Henderson/Pettis II. Both sentimentally and objectively, I’m pulling for the former, but I wouldn’t be terribly disappointed if we get the latter instead.

OTHER UFC 144 REACTIONS:

• As mentioned before, that head kick KO from Anthony Pettis was mighty impressive. But did it show old form or simply solidify what I and many others have felt, which is that while showing flashes of brilliance he’s still an uneven fighter?
• Ben Fowlkes said Quinton Jackson “didn’t look awful” in his bout at UFC 144, but I have to respectfully disagree. I went so far as to joke that it was really inspiring to see James Toney take a fight against Ryan Bader on suchshort notice. Obviously an exaggeration for comedic effect, but Jackson physically didn’t look good and didn’t fare much better between the bell, either. Injuries happen, but this is the first time in his career Jackson’s ever come in over weight (he weighed in at 211 and had to forfeit twenty percent of his purse to Bader).
• Akiyama lost again, and there was talk after the show of reevaluating his position and future with the company. But I was actually encouraged by seeing him hold his own (even if it wasn’t the most exciting affair) against a guy I still consider to be the #4 welterweight in the world. I think he did enough against a high level of competition to warrant another chance to prove himself at Welterweight.
• What’s the bigger comeback: Tim Boetsch‘s third round knockout after two rounds of being dominated in every manner possible by Yushin Okami, or Mark Hunt‘s improbable career resurgence that came only because he was literally owed fights by Zuffa after their purchase of Pride? Okay, it’s obviously Hunt, but Boetsch’s sure was fun to watch. I mean, those uppercuts! Wow.

According to the oddsmakers, that was true until very recently. The first time Edgar fought B.J. Penn for the UFC lightweight title, Penn was a 7-1 favorite. Even after Edgar beat him via decision to claim the belt, Penn was still somewhere in the neighborhood of a 3-1 favorite in the immediate rematch. Edgar won that fight too, this time even more convincingly than the first, but he was still a slight underdog when he defended the belt against Gray Maynard some four months later.

It wasn’t until the third fight with Maynard, which Edgar would go on to win via knockout, that he finally entered a title fight as the (slight) favorite. Even now, coming off arguably the biggest and most decisive win of his career, he’s just barely a favorite — currently hovering at -130, according to most oddsmakers — to beat Ben Henderson in Tokyo at UFC 144.

I’ve always been an Edgar fanboy and thought he was a lot better than people thought. Now here we are how many years later and somehow, despite having the most impressive resume of any Lightweight ever sans BJ Penn (who he beat twice), the guy is still somehow underrated and unsung.

I think it’s a combination of the fact that, as Edgar himself points out, he’s undersized for his weight class. Like his former nemesis BJ Penn at Welterweight, he walks around at or below the weight limit for his class. Unlike Penn, however, he has found more success in utilizing his speed and technique to overwhelm larger opponents while matching their strength. Like I’ve said before, it gets harder and perhaps more detrimental to cut weight as you progress to lower weight classes.

There’s also his proclivity for decisions, which draws the ire of many fans. It’ll take more than one stoppage to win them over.

But I don’t think too many people put that much thought into Edgar, because he doesn’t distract (or attract) them with boorish behavior, smack talk, an ego, or a manufactured personality. Which is a real shame.

Not so fast. From Mike Chiapetta at MMAFighting.com:

“I don’t know. I have no idea,” he said. “We’re going to have to see what happens. I haven’t even thought about it. You have to understand, the only thing I’m thinking about now is FOX. I’ve just got to get past this event. Everything else is taking a back seat. All the other s— will work itself out.”

Even without the Fox event, there can’t be a clear-cut distinction of the next title contender stemming from this one fight. Don’t get me wrong; it’s very possible that the winner will be a future opponent for Frankie Edgar. But a few things have to fall into place first.

Gilbert Melendez, the current Strikeforce Lightweight Champion, will have to successfully defend his belt against Jorge Masdival at the December 17th event on Showtime. Based on his performances and his shattering of the myths of fighters like Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri, the general consensus is that Melendez is the best Lightweight outside of the UFC and, perhaps, the #2 Lightweight in the world. He’s definitely Top 5. The problem is that challengers in Strikeforce were few and far between due to their paltry Lightweight division (hardly the only weight where there the promotion had little to no depth). With the UFC’s absorption of Strikeforce, it’d be foolish to keep Melendez out of the UFC and walking all over lesser fighters. A champion versus champion fight seems like a foregone conclusion, but Masdival also has more punching power than Melendez is used to seeing. Him as #2 in the world is a very strong theory, but one that’s been ultimately untested in the last calendar year.

Then there’s Dennis Siver. Admittedly, I’m a bit biased; I’m a fan of Siver’s and my first pitch to UFC.com was a profile of the fighter (conducted via a translation from the kind and knowledgeable Oliver Copp, to whom I’ll always be grateful). Siver has been on a tear his last four fights and looked impressive in every outing, including a dominating performance against George Sotiropoulos, who myself and many others thought was on a trajectory towards title contention himself. His next opponent is another potential contender, former WEC Lightweight champion Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, who since dropping his title to Ben Henderson a year and a half ago has gone on a five-fight tear. Depending on how that fight and other circumstances play out, that fight as well could realistically determine a #1 contender.

Talk about a logjam.

Regardless of how the division plays out, the fight between Ben Henderson and Clay Guida is sure to be a barn-burner. You can watch it for free prior to the network broadcast on the UFC’s Facebook page or by visiting FOX.com.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAY MAYNARD?
The easy answer is Nate Diaz. Diaz’s win over Takanori Gomi at UFC 135 had everyone ready to proclaim him the #1 contender, which confounds me considering his inconsistency and the fact that Gomi is nowhere near the fighter he was six years ago (and even then he was overrated). However, it does give matchmaker Joe Silva an excuse to make the fight with Maynard to settle their long-standing grudge. Surely Nate, who has been asking for this fight since January of 2010, would love to see it happen. Thing is, though, Maynard is not anything resembling the fighter he was when they first met in the fifth season of the Ultimate Fighter. While Diaz has been jumping up and down in weight and trying to find his place in the fight world, Maynard has matured into an elite 155er and improved his striking tremendously. Be careful what you wish for, Nate.

JOSE ALDO: THE FEATHERWEIGHT RODNEY DANGERFIELD
Aldo can’t get any respect. He was dismissed after he was unable to dispatch Mark Hominick and gassed in the championship rounds, and his win against Kenny Florian is being seen as another chink in the armor of a guy who was being called the Featherweight Anderson Silva in the WEC. The problem is that many fans and almost as many self-professed pundits are unwilling or unable to put both fights into their proper context. His fight against Hominick was coming off an injury to his cervical vertebrae. It’s the type of neck injury that could sideline an athlete for quite some time, yet Aldo was defending his title just four months after the initial diagnosis and rehab. It’s still not one hundred percent, and yet he was able to stave off his biggest figurative and literal biggest challenge yet in Kenny Florian. Was he cautions? Of course. He had to be against a guy who, despite his (slightly unfair) reputation as a guy who chokes, had a tremendous size and grappling advantage. Yet Florian wasn’t able to get him to the ground, and the best he could muster after the first round was to occasionally muscle Aldo around the cage without inflicting any damage or attaining anything resembling a dominant position. Even if Aldo himself was unhappy with the outcome, it sent a message to 155ers: don’t count on a weight cut to win the Featherweight Championship. With all due respect, if Kenny Florian couldn’t topple him, the other UFC Lightweights eyeing 145 don’t stand a chance.

KENNY FLORIAN: RETIREMENT?
Rumors of a retirement have yet to materialize, but this one had to sting. Florian was convinced that he’d finally found his route to championship gold, only to be out-grappled by a deceptively strong and agile champion. Unfortunately it’s another argument that he’s a choker, which I don’t think is entirely fair given the way the MMA media has undersold his most recent opponent and the fact that his last championship loss was to BJ Penn who was at the height of his dominance at 155. Still, it does make it clear that Florian is simply the best of the rest. There are fighters who are championship material, but in this young sport most are seemingly a full generation ahead of all other fighters in their weight class. Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva are the most obvious examples, but guys like Frankie Edgar are establishing themselves as well. While being second-best in a crowded field at any weight is nothing to be ashamed of, it’s clearly not good enough for Florian. I think it’d be a shame since he obviously still has plenty of gas left in his tank, but I’d also understand if this was the last time we saw him inside of an Octagon. Well, except when he’s doing post-fight interviews in a beige three-piece suit, anyway.

CHAEL SONNEN: PROFESSIONAL CLOWN SHOES
I’m glad that everyone’s amused by Chael Sonnen’s interviews and challenge to Anderson Silva. As a former professional wrestling junkie, I appreciated him laying down the “loser leaves town” stipulation. That’s where my praise begins and ends, though, for the guy who continues to thumb his nose at the integrity of the sport. His continued defiance and insistence that he has a right to use performance enhancing drugs under the guise of a phony disease is no laughing matter, and it’s a shame that so many people whose job it is to cover this sport are instead giggling along with him and slapping him on the back as he boasts about his ability to circumvent Athletic Commissions and tarnish the reputation of MMA. I would say that it won’t be a laughing matter when a healthy Anderson Silva gets into the Octagon with him, but I don’t find much to laugh about now as it is.

MELVIN GUILLARD IS A WORK IN PROGRESS
Guillard will be the first to tell you that he was a reckless personality when he first came into the UFC, and he’s matured by leaps and bounds as a fighter but especially as a human being since then. However, he clearly underestimated Joe Lauzon and paid for it. He’s no different than a multitude of other fighters, but a champion knows his victory is only as secure as his focus. Still, credit where it’s due to Lauzon, who kept his cool and fought smart.

———————

RESULTS – MAIN TELEVISED PORTION
Frankie Edgar def. Gray Maynard via TKO (Punches in R4) to retain the UFC Lightweight Championship
Jose Aldo def. Kenny Florian via Unanimous Decision to retain the UFC Featherweight Championship
Chael Sonnen def. Brian Stann via Submission (Arm Triangle in R2)
Nam Phan def. Leonard Garcia via Unanimous Decision
Joe Lauzon def. Melvin Guillard via Submission (Rear Naked Choke in R1)

UNDERCARD
Demian Maia def. Jorge Santiago via Unanimous Decision
Anthony Pettis def. Jeremy Stephens via Split Decision – Good to see Pettis get back to his winning ways, but a split decision win over Jeremy Stephens isn’t going to send him shooting up the rankings.
Stipe Miocic def. Joey Beltran via Unanimous Decision – Someone in the UFC dropped Miocic’s name as a Heavyweight prospect and everyone thought he was going to come out like a monster and knock Beltran’s head off. What little video I’ve seen of him gave me the same impression this fight did: he’s got potential, but he’s not quite there yet.
Darren Elkins def. Tiequan Zhang via Unanimous Decision
Aaron Simpson def. Eric Schafer via Unanimous Decision
Mike Massenzio def. Steve Cantwell via Unanimous Decision – Sadly, this will probably be the last we’ll see of the former WEC Light Heavyweight contender.

1. Although I’d turn the corner on my stance due to his last two performances, my suspicions have been confirmed that BJ Penn isn’t the same unstoppable force of nature that guys like Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, and perhaps Brock Lesnar are in their respective weight classes.
2. What a great moment – the scrappy, hard-working underdog went in against insurmountable odds and proved that he not only belonged in there, but he was perhaps the better fighter after all.
3. Oh boy. Here come the Math pundits.

Penn vs. Edgar at UFC 112. Photo from The LA Times.

Some took a hard stance against one score for the fight of 50-45, which I entirely understand since the first two rounds were most likely Penn’s with the second clearly going in his favor. Of course Dana White, the promoter with no filter, took to Twitter himself to complain of the score. But in the same Tweet, he also hit upon why BJ Penn lost: he fought Frankie Edgar’s fight, and not BJ Penn’s.

Much is being said about the statistics coming from the fight. Mike Fagan over at Bloody Elbow posted the Fight Metric data that, according to their assessment, gave BJ Penn the fight by a score of 49-47. Compustrike also released its assessment, which showed Edgar winning the exchanges standing and therefore the fight.

People have put forth that Fight Metrics have a much more diligent staff that provides a more accurate assessment of fights. That’s nice, but in the fight game, it doesn’t matter. I don’t mean just because judges don’t have access to that information or as clear a viewpoint as folks like us do during or after the fact through a clear High Def camera view. It doesn’t matter because these criteria are not how a fight is, or should be, judged.

As controversial as his views can be, we should go back to what Dana White tweeted about the fight because it’s telling of how that fight was scored and why. At the beginning of every UFC telecast, they give a brief summary of the rules and the judging criteria. Judging for Mixed Martial Arts as established by the Unified Rules established by the New Jersey State Athletic Commission are primarily based around four areas: clean strikes, effective grappling, octagon control, and effective aggressiveness. Organizations like Fight Metrics and Compustrike are nice for hard numbers, but those only account for clean strikes, and although they do count takedowns, one can’t make a decision on effective grappling based on pure numbers alone no matter how many variables you include in the formula.

As for octagon control and effective aggressiveness, forget about it. That’s not to say that these are abstract constructs. Far from it, since they can be measured through observation. It also needs to be noted that striking can’t really be measured solely on contact. If we allow that to happen, we’ll see an influx of fighters who throw nothing but jabs and get decision wins through boring, technical standup that wouldn’t even bruise the cheek of your great-grandmother.

Mathematics may be the universal language, but it can’t be used to solve all the world’s problems and definitively answer all queries. There are problems with judging in MMA to be certain, but in the conversation on how to rectify them we have to be conscious of the fact that Mixed Martial Arts is an objective sport can’t – and shouldn’t ever – become a numbers game.

I haven’t had a chance to rewatch the fight, but while watching the live feed I had it scored 48-47 in favor of Frankie Edgar. Penn may have landed more clean shots in a few rounds, but those were counter-punches that barely grazed Edgar and didn’t do nearly as much damage. Counter-punching isn’t aggression. Additionally, Edgar not only showed greater movement but also dictated the pace and direction of the fight both figuratively and literally. There wasn’t a moment where BJ Penn seemed like he was in complete control of the situation for any significant amount of time. And that, my friends, is what makes a fight.

Debate is a healthy part of MMA fandom. But let’s keep it that way and not rely on data that, while perhaps accurate, doesn’t provide the scope and range necessary to properly educate ourselves and others on the finer nuances of the sport.