Sure, Shields and Akiyama was a disappointing affair, mostly due to Jake’s stubborn refusal to work on his boxing (and that’s coming from a guy who’s actually one of his frequent defenders), but the rest of the card was top to bottom excitement and intrigue. Even Bader’s dismantling of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was interesting, even if it was for all the wrong reasons, chief among them the fact that the Japanese fans were booing Rampage by the third round. For those of us that have some working knowledge of the history of MMA in Japan and the behavior and tone of Japanese fans at live fights, that was a surreal moment.

Most of the post-fight talk, though, focused on the five round decision that made former WEC champion and standout Benson Henderson the new UFC Lightweight Champion.

After the fight a lot of fighters and pundits took to twitter to say they thought Edgar had won the fight. They had an ally in UFC President Dana White, who said as much during his post-event interview with Ariel Helwani.

But did he? I’m not so sure.

I went into the fight legitimately torn because I genuinely like and admire both fighters. But I found myself cheering for Edgar as soon as they came nose to nose and the size discrepancy between the two fully sunk in. Henderson, even with a very strict diet and training regiment to ensure a proper weight cut that doesn’t sacrifice endurance, is on the (much) larger end of 155 and wouldn’t look out of place at Welterweight (he would, in fact, be as big or bigger than all but the most freakishly large Thiago Alves types). Edgar, on the other hand, is like BJ Penn at 170, in that he’s fighting a full weight class above where he probably should be, and word has it he cuts little to no weight and could easily make Featherweight if he chose to.

This made sitting and watching objectively to be an exercise in will and determination. How could I not watch what Edgar was doing to survive the onslaught of a much, much larger opponent, particularly since I’ve expressed in this space before how underappreciated he is? Edgar was, as he has been for some time now, exemplary of all things that make MMA truly great: courageous, masterful, and technically marvelous.  That he kept his cool and fought for three rounds with a closed eye and a broken nose from a spot-on upkick from Henderson made his performance all the more memorable and admirable.

Unfortunately, I felt he was still (narrowly) outstruck by Henderson in all but two rounds. At the end of the fight, I had it scored for Henderson by a score of 48-47. Two of the three judges agreed with me, with the third giving it 49-46 for Henderson. An incorrect judgement in my opinion, but not an absurd one given what we saw from both men. Fight Metric, a valuable if still flawed resource (through no fault of their own since it’s impossible to compute intangibles like aggression and Octagon control), broke it down along the same lines as that lone judge.

It wasn’t a robbery, and I’m glad to see that nobody’s claiming as such. I don’t even know if it was close enough, on paper, to warrant an immediate rematch. I do however think that it’s only fair that the UFC take the size discrepancy and heart Edgar showed into account when considering who Henderson’s next opponent should be. Everyone’s eager to see Henderson try to avenge his WEC Lightweight Championship loss to Anthony Pettis based solely on the famous “Showtime” kick moment from the final round of that fight. Yet I’m hesitant to say that Pettis deserves it over any other contender in the bottlenecked division. The head kick knockout of Joe Lauzon earlier in the evening was impressive, but injuries and circumstances have kept Lauzon in the very bottom rung of the top ten. That makes Pettis’s last three fights a knockout win over a perennial gatekeeper, a very close split decision win over Jeremy Stephens, and a decisive loss to Clay Guida. If we’re going to look at it objectively, that’s not a contender’s resume.

Time and fan reaction will tell if we see Henderson/Edgar II or Henderson/Pettis II. Both sentimentally and objectively, I’m pulling for the former, but I wouldn’t be terribly disappointed if we get the latter instead.

OTHER UFC 144 REACTIONS:

• As mentioned before, that head kick KO from Anthony Pettis was mighty impressive. But did it show old form or simply solidify what I and many others have felt, which is that while showing flashes of brilliance he’s still an uneven fighter?
• Ben Fowlkes said Quinton Jackson “didn’t look awful” in his bout at UFC 144, but I have to respectfully disagree. I went so far as to joke that it was really inspiring to see James Toney take a fight against Ryan Bader on suchshort notice. Obviously an exaggeration for comedic effect, but Jackson physically didn’t look good and didn’t fare much better between the bell, either. Injuries happen, but this is the first time in his career Jackson’s ever come in over weight (he weighed in at 211 and had to forfeit twenty percent of his purse to Bader).
• Akiyama lost again, and there was talk after the show of reevaluating his position and future with the company. But I was actually encouraged by seeing him hold his own (even if it wasn’t the most exciting affair) against a guy I still consider to be the #4 welterweight in the world. I think he did enough against a high level of competition to warrant another chance to prove himself at Welterweight.
• What’s the bigger comeback: Tim Boetsch‘s third round knockout after two rounds of being dominated in every manner possible by Yushin Okami, or Mark Hunt‘s improbable career resurgence that came only because he was literally owed fights by Zuffa after their purchase of Pride? Okay, it’s obviously Hunt, but Boetsch’s sure was fun to watch. I mean, those uppercuts! Wow.

As Mike Chiapetta notes over at MMAFighting.com:

The success of both starts with offense. Both men are among the most prolific offensive heavyweights in UFC history. Actually, they are the most prolific offensive fighters in UFC history among all division. Again, this can be proven with numbers. According to FightMetric, they rank No. 1 and 2 in UFC history for significant strikes landed per minute all-time.

Brazilian MMA journalist Alexandre Matos asked for my pick for MMA-Brasil.com:

Kevin Marshall (Mixed Mashall Arts): Eu vou de Cain. Não há dúvida na minha cabeça. Acho que a única chance de Junior é terminar rápido. Se ele não o fizer, a luta será de Cain. Além disso, acho que Cain é muito inteligente para deixar a luta se tornar um verdadeiro quebra-pau. Vejo perfeitamente Velasquez botando Junior para baixo rapidamente e dominando-o

What, you don’t speak Portugese? Oh, fine. A translation:

 ”I gotta go with Cain. There’s no doubt in my mind. I just feel like Junior’s only going to have a chance to get in there and finish it quick, and if he doesn’t, it’s Cain’s fight. And I think Cain’s too smart to let it get into a total slugfest. I can totally see him taking it to the ground quickly and overpowering him.”

In his last fight, Cain shattered whatever was left of the Brock Lesnar myth. This is not to say Lesnar can’t or won’t be champion again, but Cain made him look human. Strip away the intimidation factor and you have a guy that, although bigger than Cain, was slower and physically weaker. Junior Dos Santos, because of his superior stand-up and conditioning, may be a more dangerous fight for Cain, but like I told Alexandre, I think Cain’s too smart and versatile to not take that fight where he needs to take it. Either way, it’s going to be a Hell of a fight, and in terms of quality and excitement you couldn’t ask for a better bout for the UFC’s network debut.

While the broadcast kicks off live at 9:00pm EST, the undercard starting at 4:45pm on the UFC’s Facebook page will also provide no shortage of interesting match-ups. Most notable is the semi-main event (for the live crowd at least) of former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson taking on Lightweight stalwart and UFC veteran Clay Guida. Dana White has declared that the winner will get the next shot at Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, which I take issue with in light of the absolute tear Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone has been on since joining the ranks and the fact that the #2 Lightweight in the world, Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez, has a fight in two weeks that all but guarantees he’ll be in line as well.

Issues of rankings and placement aside, you couldn’t ask for a better fight than Henderson and Guida. Both are tough as nails, have cardio for days, and fight Japanese (a term I use to describe fighters who for better or worse let the momentum of the fight dictate their style). That said, one of the things that has made Clay Guida more successful over the course of the last year is that he’s fighting less wild and showing a bit more restraint when the leather starts flying. He’s still exciting to watch, mind you, but the difference now is that he dictates the pace rather than chasing after it. In addition to restraint, I thinke he also has an edge in strength and experience.

Surprisingly, Henderson is currently a 5-2 favorite on the books. Personally I think that should be flipped, but Henderson is also the type of fighter I would never put up money against.

More info and the full card is available over at the official site for UFC on Fox.

Not so fast. From Mike Chiapetta at MMAFighting.com:

“I don’t know. I have no idea,” he said. “We’re going to have to see what happens. I haven’t even thought about it. You have to understand, the only thing I’m thinking about now is FOX. I’ve just got to get past this event. Everything else is taking a back seat. All the other s— will work itself out.”

Even without the Fox event, there can’t be a clear-cut distinction of the next title contender stemming from this one fight. Don’t get me wrong; it’s very possible that the winner will be a future opponent for Frankie Edgar. But a few things have to fall into place first.

Gilbert Melendez, the current Strikeforce Lightweight Champion, will have to successfully defend his belt against Jorge Masdival at the December 17th event on Showtime. Based on his performances and his shattering of the myths of fighters like Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri, the general consensus is that Melendez is the best Lightweight outside of the UFC and, perhaps, the #2 Lightweight in the world. He’s definitely Top 5. The problem is that challengers in Strikeforce were few and far between due to their paltry Lightweight division (hardly the only weight where there the promotion had little to no depth). With the UFC’s absorption of Strikeforce, it’d be foolish to keep Melendez out of the UFC and walking all over lesser fighters. A champion versus champion fight seems like a foregone conclusion, but Masdival also has more punching power than Melendez is used to seeing. Him as #2 in the world is a very strong theory, but one that’s been ultimately untested in the last calendar year.

Then there’s Dennis Siver. Admittedly, I’m a bit biased; I’m a fan of Siver’s and my first pitch to UFC.com was a profile of the fighter (conducted via a translation from the kind and knowledgeable Oliver Copp, to whom I’ll always be grateful). Siver has been on a tear his last four fights and looked impressive in every outing, including a dominating performance against George Sotiropoulos, who myself and many others thought was on a trajectory towards title contention himself. His next opponent is another potential contender, former WEC Lightweight champion Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, who since dropping his title to Ben Henderson a year and a half ago has gone on a five-fight tear. Depending on how that fight and other circumstances play out, that fight as well could realistically determine a #1 contender.

Talk about a logjam.

Regardless of how the division plays out, the fight between Ben Henderson and Clay Guida is sure to be a barn-burner. You can watch it for free prior to the network broadcast on the UFC’s Facebook page or by visiting FOX.com.