HEAVYWEIGHT (206 lbs. – 265 lbs.)

1. Brock Lesnar (4-1 / UFC Heavyweight Champion)
2. Shane Carwin (12-0 / UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion)
3. Cain Velasquez (8-0 / UFC)
4. Alistair Overeem (33-11, 1 NC / Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion)
5. Junior Dos Santos (11-1 / UFC)
6. Fabricio Werdum (15-2 / Strikeforce)
7. Fedor Emelianenko (31-2, 1 NC / WAMMA Heavyweight Champion)
8. Frank Mir (13-5/ UFC)
9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1 / UFC)
10. Roy Nelson (15-4 / UFC)

Over the course of one week, we saw an Emperor fall and Brock Lesnar prove himself both resilient and the #1 ranked Heavyweight in the World. I honestly don’t think there can be any question as to the latter; the former I’ve suspected for quite some time. Sure, anybody can get caught, but the general consensus has been that Fedor was above it. Well, sorry to say, I was right all along: Fedor Emelianenko is human, and not facing a legitimate heavyweight challenge in the last several years has finally caught up to him.

Shane Carwin, despite the loss, stays right where he is. Carwin came as close as anyone’s going to come to putting Brock away. Carwin is the biggest heavyweight in the UFC besides Lesnar, was able to stuff his takedown, and hits harder than anyone else in the division. If he can’t put him away, what hope does anyone else have?

Meanwhile, Fabricio Werdum proved he still belongs in the conversation, and maybe that devastating loss to Junior Dos Santos wouldn’t go down quite the same way if a fight between the two were to go down again. Immediately after the fight Werdum was asked what was next, and he expressed a desire to grant Fedor a rematch rather than face off against controversial Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion, Alistair Overeem. With only one fight remaining on Fedor’s contract, the smart money is on that rematch happening. And, once again, Overeem will be left in limbo unless he expresses a willingness to fight Antonio Silva. Which, I’ll be frank, I’m not sure is a fight Overeem wants, since he (nor anybody else for that matter) seems to be talking about it.

The next shake-up in the rankings occurs when Junior Dos Santos faces off against Roy Nelson on August 7th. For some reason, I have a feeling the winner’s going to have a date with either Frank Mir or the loser of Brock vs. Cain (in other words, Cain).

Cain Velasquez may have the next title shot, but I honestly don’t see him coming anywhere near giving Lesnar the type of trouble Carwin gave him. Despite him not having much of a chance, this is actually a big fight for the UFC, as they’ve struggled to break through to the Hispanic market. The question is, can they convince them (and the rest of us) that Cain presents a legitimate threat? It’s a tough sell to be certain.

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And that wraps up the breakdown of my wholly inconsequential, just-for-s***s-and-giggles rankings.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (186 lbs. – 205 lbs.)

1. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-4 / UFC Light Heavyweight Champion)
2. Lyoto Machida (16-1 / UFC)
3. Rashad Evans (15-1-1 / UFC)
4. Jon Jones (10-1-0 / UFC)
5. “King” Mo Lawal (7-0 / Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion)
6. Thiago Silva (14-2 / UFC)
7. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3 / UFC)
8. Randy Couture (18-10 / UFC)
9. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (30-8 / UFC)
10. Forrest Griffin (17-6 / UFC)

There hasn’t been any real movement since Mauricio “Shogun” Rua‘s epic dismantling of Lyoto Machida last May. Recovery from a recent knee surgery will keep Rua out until March, which leaves the entire division in limbo (see my post from last week on the matter).

The next major Light Heavyweight fight this Summer will be Jon Jones facing off against Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko on the second UFC on Versus card. It’s a fight that unfortunately won’t move Jones any further up the rung, either in these inconsequential rankings or in the UFC.

Same with “King” Mo Lawal, who after disposing of Gegard Mousasi has virtually no competition in Strikeforce. Case in poitn: his first defense is scheduled to be against Rafael Cavalcante on August 21st. They were going to put Renato “Babalu” Sobral against him, but then Babalu refused because Mo trains at his gym. Where’s Maurilo “Ninja” Rua when you need him?

It seems like only yesterday Forrest Griffin was overachieving and winning championships, and now he hangs onto the top ten with his fingers perilously slipping off the ledge one by one. Before it was losses against top-flight competition, but then he had trouble with an aging and nearly crippled Tito Ortiz and a nagging shoulder injury that once again took him out of an important fight (against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira). Griffin needs a win in his next fight desperately to stay in consideration for contention.

Speaking of the man they call “Little Nog,” Antonio Rogerio Nogueira moves down a few spots due to a disappointing fight against Justin Brilz that he probably should have lost. However, he only falls so far on my list, since he was facing an opponent on such short notice that he couldn’t effectively scout and prepare for him.

MIDDLEWEIGHT (171 lbs. – 185 lbs.)

1. Anderson Silva (26-4 / UFC Middleweight Champion)
2. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1 / UFC)
3. Vitor Belfort (19-8 / UFC)
4. Nate Marquardt (29-9-2 / UFC)
5. Jake Shields (25-4-1 / Strikeforce Middleweight Champion)
6. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (12-2-0 / Strikeforce)
7. Demian Maia (12-2 / UFC)
8. Yushin Okami (24-5 / UFC)
9. Mark Munoz (8-1 / UFC)
10. Alan Belcher (16-6 / UFC)

On August 7th Anderson Silva defends against #2 on my list, Chael Sonnen. Chael is a cerebral fighter. Cerebral in his preparation – as in he has a unique ability to spot and exploit holes in a fighter’s game – and in his psychological smack talk. That last part also helps with the bottom line financially. The promos the UFC has built for this fight featuring clips of Chael’s trash-talking are incredible. I think it’s going to be a more competitive and successful fight than a lot of people realize.

Jake Shields will be off this list once he officially signs with the UFC. He’s expressed interest in starting out at Middleweight, but Dana White has already decreed that’s not going to happen.

Yushin Okami could move further up the rankings with a decisive win over Mark Munoz, a dangerous opponent with understated knockout power.

Chris Leben was able to deflate what little stock I had in Akiyama and knock him out of my Top 10. Two wins in two weeks is nothing to sniff at regardless of who you’re fighting, but as much as I love enjoy watching him brawl, I’m not sold on him being a contender in this division again. One thing’s for certain, though – his employment in the UFC is secure.

WELTERWEIGHT (156 lbs. – 170 lbs.)

1. Georges St. Pierre (20-2 / UFC Welterweight Champion)
2. Jake Shields (25-4-1 / Strikeforce Middleweight Champion)
3. Josh Koscheck (19-4 / UFC)
4. Jon Fitch (22-3, 1NC / UFC)
5. Nick Diaz (21-7, 1 ND / Strikeforce Welterweight Champion)
6. Thiago Alves (16-6 / UFC)
7. Paulo Thiago (13-1 / UFC)
8. Martin Kampmann (17-3 / UFC)
9. Dan Hardy (14-4 / UFC)
10. Carlos Condit (25-5 / UFC)

I may sound like I’m gushing, but not enough can be said for how great Georges St. Pierre is and his accomplishments at Welterweight. It’s one thing to completely dominate and clean out the division to the point where any potential match-up seems like a fool’s errand for the competition. What makes it more impressive is that 170 has probably the toughest top ten of any weight class.

Jake Shields is coming to the UFC, and he’ll provide the toughest test for St. Pierre in literally years. That said, his one failing is his stand-up. St. Pierre prefers wrestling, which has resulted in people forgetting how versatile and dangerous his stand-up is. He’s not ashamed to fight a safe fight. Against Shields, the safer fight would probably be on his feet.

That’s looking past Josh Koscheck. He’s looked great in his last few fights, albeit against lesser competition; still, I expect the same thing to happen in their second meeting: Koscheck will be overwhelmed by St. Pierre’s wrestling and will be right back to asking himself where he went wrong and have to work his way back up. Again.

Meanwhile, it’s getting tougher and tougher to deny Jon Fitch his second opportunity. The question is, are there any improvements or changes in his game to make us think he’d fare better against GSP? I have my doubts. I wonder, though, if a win against Thiago Alves will put him back in line for a title shot or set him up as the (perceived) sacrificial lamb against Jake Shields.

Nick Diaz is easily the best fighter at 170 not under contract with the UFC. That’s probably a good thing; he’d have a lot of trouble with all the wrestlers they have in their division.

Look out for Martin Kampmann. He looked like a monster last month, and could be the next contender on the rise in the division.

Speaking of comebacks, Carlos Condit looked like the fighter we saw in the WEC when he fought a tough and game Rory MacDonald. His next fight against Dan Hardy is intriguing. Hardy’s a dangerous striker to be sure, but now that Condit’s prowess on the ground seems to have returned, are we going to see Hardy’s lack of takedown defense exploited again?

LIGHTWEIGHT (146  lbs. – 155 lbs.)

1. Frankie Edgar (12-1 / UFC Lightweight Champion)
2. B.J. Penn (15-6-1 / UFC)
3. Gilbert Melendez (18-2 / Strikeforce Lightweight Champion)
4. Gray Maynard (9-0, 1 NC / UFC)
5. Kenny Florian (13-4 / UFC)
6. Benson Henderson (12-1 / WEC Lightweight Champion)
7. George Sotiropoulos (14-2 / UFC)
8. Sean Sherk (33-4-1 / UFC)
9. Eddie Alvarez (20-1 / Bellator Lightweight Champion
10. Josh Thomson (17-3 / Strikeforce)

Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn will rematch on August 28th, wrapping up an intriguing summer for title fights. In their first fight, Penn seemed overwhelmed and unable to handle Edgar’s frantic movement and stick and run punches, save for counter-punches that couldn’t put Edgar away. Has Frankie truly eclipsed Penn, or was BJ – who was sporting a wrap on his knee and did seem to move a bit gingerly in the third round – fighting through an injury?

On that same card, Kenny Florian and Gray Maynard will face off in a battle to determine the #1 contender to the UFC Lightweight Title. Maynard’s been dominant with his wrestling, but does he have enough to overwhelm Florian? The answer, and the reason why he didn’t get the title shot against BJ Penn: probably not. He has a win over Edgar, but with the exception of Nate Diaz (overrated in two weight classes), he’s been matched up against strikers with huge holes in their takedown defense and ground game.

Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez’s next logical fight is against Bellator Lightweight Champion Eddie Alvarez, an intriguing fight that neither promotion seems in a rush to produce. More likely he’ll rematch #10 on my list, Josh Thomson.

Still underrated: WEC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson. Sure, it’s the “minor leagues” so to speak, but Benson is one of those rare fighters who doesn’t have a game he sticks to, he shapes his game specifically around his opponents. I think he’d fare a lot better in the UFC than people think.

George Sotiropoulos proved himself a future contender in a fantastic performance against a criminally underrated Kurt Pellegrino. Realistically, he’s one win away from being in consideration for a title shot. If I’m Joe Silva, I’m waiting for August 29th to set him up in a fight with the loser of Maynard/Florian.

FEATHERWEIGHT (136  lbs. – 145 lbs.)

1. Jose Aldo (17-1 / WEC Featherweight Champion)
2. Manny Gamburyan (11-4 / WEC)
3. Mike Thomas Brown (23-6 / WEC)
4. Bibiano Fernandes (8-2 / DREAM Featherweight Champion)
5. Urijah Faber (23-4 / WEC)
6. Josh Grispi (14-1 / WEC)
7. Joe Soto (9-0 / Bellator Featherweight Champion)
8. Raphael Assuncao (14-2 / WEC)
9. Joe Warren (5-1 / Bellator)
10. Marlon Sandro (17-1 / Sengoku Featherweight Champion)

I had my doubts about Manny Gamburyan being brought up in conversation about title contenders until I saw what he did against Mike Thomas Brown. With his injury-plagued days behind him, Manny might have finally found his weight. Unfortunately, he came around at the same time as Jose Aldo, who has looked like a 145 pound Anderson Silva out there.

I put Bibiano Fernandes in the top 5 with some degree of hesitation. However, his only two losses were to Norifumi “KID” Yamamoto and Urijah Faber, when both were absolute monsters in the division. He’s fared well against some very tough opponents and is on the bigger side of 145. He’d have some trouble with Jose Aldo‘s speed, but would overwhelm a lot of other fighters at that weight. It’s my hope that Zuffa starts giving bigger pay-outs in WEC, which will entice fighters like Fernandez to ply their trade consistently in North America, which will also make them better fighters.

This is probably the last month we’ll see Urijah Faber in the top ten, as he’s making a permanent move to Bantamweight in a fight against Top 10 ranked Takeya Mizugaki on August 18th. He had a tough go of it after two consecutive losses to Mike Thomas Brown and his decimation at the hands of Jose Aldo and is hoping to find a second life at 135. It’s an intriguing move. We’ll see if he’s able to pull it off.

Joe Warren gets better each time I see him, even if he wins controversial decisions. He’s still got a ways to go, but the potential is definitely there.

BANTAMWEIGHT RANKINGS (126 lbs. – 135 lbs.)

1. Dominick Cruz (15-1 / WEC Bantamweight Champion)
2. Joseph Benavidez (12-1 / WEC)
3. Brian Bowles (8-1 / WEC)
4. Scott Jorgensen (10-3 / WEC)
5. Miguel Torres (37-3 / WEC)
6. Wagnney Fabiano (14-2 / WEC)
7. Takeya Mizugaki (13-4-2 / WEC)
8. Cole Escovedo (16-4 / DREAM)
9. Nick Mamalis (10-4 / Bellator)
10. Eddie Wineland (17-6-1 / WEC)

A little over a year will have passed between the last meeting between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez and their rematch on August 18th. This time it’s for the title, and I honestly think that’s going to be the only difference. I expect another unanimous decision victory in that one, as Cruz establishes himself as the next dominant champion at 135.

Brian Bowles sits comfortably at #3 in the division, but his performance against Cruz raised a lot of questions as to his shelf life. Who – and where – is his next opponent? And can he bounce back?

Scott Jorgensen and Miguel Torres are, in my mind, on an inevitable collision course. Jorgensen is rallying back hard after a few setbacks, while Torres has gone from dominating the division to fighting to keep himself relevant.

Takeya Mizugaki has provided some of the best fights in WEC history, and his matchup against Urijah Faber (marking his debut at Bantamweight) should be no different. I don’t know how WEC sees it, but I think it’s a win-win situation for Mizugaki. If he loses, he loses to a fighter who is a legend at a higher (and some would say tougher) weight class. If he wins, he’s beaten a tough opponent and inched himself closer to another shot at the title.

The best Cole Escovedo can do in Japan is prove he belongs in the WEC. He’s done that. It’s time for him to make the move Stateside.

The night had two amazing Fight of the Year Candidates, a main event that surprised on many fronts, and not a single bad fight on the main card. For certain, it was one of the best fight cards in recent memory.

George Sotiropoulos def. Kurt Pellegrino via Unanimous Decision
Sotiropoulos erased what few doubts remained as to his standing in the Lightweight Division with a fantastic performance over a tough and criminally underrated Pellegrino. After coming up short in season 6 of The Ultimate Fighter (where he lost in the semi-finals to Tommy Speer), Sotiropoulos has emerged as one of the more successful competitors in the show’s history. It’s been a slow, but steady climb, with his growth as a fighter on display at each turn. Tonight, he showed prowess both with his hands and his ground game. I have a feeling Sotiropoulos is going to find himself in title contention by year’s end.

Stephan Bonnar def. Krzysztof Soszynski via TKO, R2, 3:08
Bonnar come out of the bell of Round 2 completely dominating the fight after a rough first round and completely annihilated Soszynski in a gutsy performance that showed his story as a fighter wasn’t quite near its end as myself and others had predicted. He looked like a new man tonight, and more importantly, he gave the skilled and gutsy performance we had expected out of him when he fought Forrest Griffin at the end of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Bonnar had to win this fight to keep his career going, and boy, did it ever.

Chris Lytle def. Matt Brown via Submission (armbar) R2, 2:02
Another submission from Chris Lytle and more question marks as to where Matt Brown fits in the UFC. Lytle’s always been one of those fighters that has trouble putting a few wins together, so we’ll see if he’ll be able to climb that ladder. As far as Brown’s concerned, he needs to re-evaluate his approach, as another loss could spell an end to his time in the UFC.

Chris Leben def. Yoshihiro Akiyama via Submission (triangle choke) R3, 4:40
With the exception of Brown vs. Lytle, each successive fight had me thinking “no, THIS is going to win Fight of the Night.” Enter Chris Leben and Yoshihiro Akiyama, two fighters who may never be serious contenders for the Middleweight Championship, but who regardless go out there and fight with all of their hearts. For those of us who love Leben for all the right and wrong reasons, we got everything we wanted: a gutsy performance, quick comebacks from hard shots, and the debut of what the folks in John’s living room (we watched the fights at the residence of co-host Johnny Hustle of MANville) named the “Monkey Cymbal Method” – Leben, in the bottom with full guard, ineffectively hitting both sides of Akiyama’s head simultaneously. Ultimately it was superior conditioning that won the day, as Akiyama had worn himself out so much he literally almost fell off his stool after the second round. For his efforts, Leben goes from being in danger of getting cut by the UFC to winning two fights in as many weeks. How can you not love this guy?

Brock Lesnar def.  Shane Carwin via submission (arm-triangle choke) R2, 2:19
With the win, Lesnar becomes the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion and, following Fedor Emelianenko’s loss last weekend, the undisputed #1 Heavyweight in the world. The litmus test for the fight came early, as Lesnar shot in for a takedown that Carwin – himself a Division II NCAA National Champion – stuffed with ease. After being dropped from a hard right from Carwin, Brock found himself turtling up as Carwin reigned down somewhere in the neighborhood of thirty unanswered punches. He did just enough on the ground to show referee Josh Rosenthal that he was not in any danger of being knocked out, and eventually Carwin punched himself out. Lesnar, sensing the diminishing power of Carwin’s assault, got out of the position and brought it back up to the feet to end the first. In the second round, Lesnar’s second wind brought with it his usual lightning speed and indomitable strength, taking Carwin to the ground with ease and eventually transitioning from half-guard to full mount, then to a side-mount arm and triangle choke that eventually ended the fight. Carwin pushed his elbow into a “telephone” position in an attempt to fight it off, but Lesnar switched his angle to gain more leverage and eventually the pure size of his bicep became too much for Carwin to withstand. With it, Brock showed growth as a fighter, and also proved that he had the one thing we weren’t sure he had or needed: resiliency. There’s no denying his place in the Heavyweight Division. The real question: can anyone stop him?

PRELIMINARY CARD

Brendan Schuab def. Chris Tuchscherer via TKO – R1, 1:07
Schaub showed great punching power, which he needs being a relatively small heavyweight.
Ricardo Romero def. Seth Petruzelli via Submission (armbar) – R2, 3:05
A decent fight in its own right. Petruzelli showed something in this fight, and in my mind did enough to warrant another chance to prove himself in the promotion.
Kendall Grove def. Goran Reljic via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
Gerald Harris def. David Branch via KO (slam) R3, 2:35
Harris finished Branch with a powerbomb reminiscent of the one Jackson gave to Ricardo Arona in the glory days of Pride. He’s a beast, but he also fought with a wrestler’s stance that had his head far too low. Against someone with better kickboxing skills it would have been easily exploited, and needs to be addressed before he moves on to the next level.
Daniel Roberts def. Forrest Petz via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Jon Madsen def. Karlos Vemola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin
(UFC Heavyweight Championship)
PREDICTION: LESNAR via TKO, R2
My gut tells me that Lesnar is going to win, but he’s coming back from a pretty severe ailment that quite literally almost killed him. And, even though we’ve all crowned him the undisputed King of Heavyweights after Fedor’s loss, he still only has five fights on his record and this is his first against a skilled striker. As scary as Lesnar has been, we still don’t know how he takes a punch. It’s going to be a really interesting fight to say the least, and regardless of who wins, it’s a safe bet this isn’t going into the 3rd Round.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben
(Middleweight Bout)
PREDICTION: LEBEN via UNANIMOUS DECISION
Leben stepped in on just twelve days notice – and two days after a surprising victory over Aaron Simpson on The Ultimate Fighter Finale – to replace the injured Wanderlei de Silva. Akiyama expressed hesitation towards taking the fight, and for good reason: he’s exactly the sort of unpredictable, swing-for-the-fences fighter that gives him trouble. I’m not sold on Akiyama as a contender stateside, so I’m picking an upset, with the caveat that it’s probably really not all that much of an upset.

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Paul Heyman, Lesnar’s Ex-WWE Manager, Explains Friendship With Champ — MMA Fighting.

Really interesting interview conducted by Ariel Helwani with Brock Lesnar’s fictional WWE manager – and real-life best friend – Paul Heyman.