Tomorrow night is the long-awaited showdown between former stablemates Jon Jones and Rashad Evans for the UFC Light Heavyweight Title. Will the phenom Jones continue his ascendance, or will Evans play spoiler?

If he did, it wouldn’t be the first time. Even when Evans knocked out Chuck Liddell with an overhand right to win his first title in what was considered a huge upset, we should have known better. Evans thrives on the insistence people have in underestimating his skills and intelligence. It may seem ludicrous to call the consensus #2 Light Heavyweight in the world underrated, but it’s apt. Sure, he got caught against Machida, but it literally happens to the best of them.

I’m picking Jones, but I wouldn’t call an Evans win an upset. Not even considering that due to various injuries, Evans has only fought three times in the last two years. Because I know better by now, and you should too.

The full card, and my picks for the main broadcast:

Preliminary card (streaming live via the UFC’s Facebook page)

• Featherweight bout: Marcus Brimage vs. Maximo Blanco
• Welterweight bout: Keith Wisniewski vs. Chris Clements

Preliminary card (airing FX)

• Lightweight bout: Mac Danzig vs. Efrain Escudero
• Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Anthony Njokuani
• Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson
• Heavyweight bout: Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs

MAIN CARD

• Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. John Alessio
• Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin
• Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Michael McDonald
• Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Ben Rothwell
• Welterweight bout: Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills
• Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs. Rashad Evans

PICKS:

• Bocek over Alessio via Submission, R3. Alessio’s a bit of a wild card. He’s done well for himself the last few years, but Bocek’s been fighting a much higher level of competition in the UFC and WEC.
• Hominick over Yagin via TKO, R2. Both are finishers and this should be an aggressive, explosive encounter. A lot of people are writing off Yagin, but I think he’s going to give Hominick quite a bit of trouble.
• (Michael) McDonald over Torres by Unanimous Decision. I like Miguel, but I think his days of being at the top of the Bantamweight Division are over, at least for the time being. The competition hasn’t completely passed him by, but but this division’s only gotten stronger in the last three years. McDonald has looked great, so great that I’m picking him to win even though he shares a name with a Yacht Rocker.
• Schaub over Rothwell by Unanimous Decision. Rothwell is tough enough to survive Schaub’s onslaught, but doesn’t have the offensive tools to put him in any real danger. Barring bad cardio from Schaub, this is his fight to lose.
• (Rory) McDonald over Mills via TKO, R3. This or Homonick/Yagin is going to get Fight of the Night. Mills has a good game, but McDonald is quite possibly the most underrated guy at 170 (and the one who put Nate Diaz out of the division).
• Jones over Evans via TKO, R4. I’m having what you might call a premonition. I see Rashad keeping distance between himself and Jones in the first round and surprising him with a couple takedowns, grinding out a 10-9 on the judges’ scorecards. Then Jones will adjust and batter him the next three rounds, ending in either a stoppage early in the 4th or in Evans being unable to answer the bell. If anybody can beat Jones, it’s Evans. But the kid’s a monster. Case in point: if he wins this fight, he’ll have cleaned out the Light Heavyweight division in a manner of a couple years. Amazing.

*****

Tom Lawlor’s entrances
Last Saturday, Lawlor fought in the last Facebook prelim against Middleweight phenom Chris Weidman. He lost (Weidman is on a tear and I expect him to be in a position for a title shot by the end of 2012), but he won our hearts with his latest entrance. Even better, though, was his turn at the weigh-ins where he showed up dressed as Steven Seagal:

*****

Chael Sonnen’s mental illness

Sonnen  is an incredible creep, highly unlikable, a liar, a cheater, brash, and irritating. Thankfully, though, he’s also batshit crazy. This makes him at least entertaining, even when he’s being intolerable.

*****

More “free” MMA than ever before
With UFC on Fox now behind us, we’re set to see more specials on Fox, Fuel, and FX in the next few months. As a bonus, they’ve learned their lesson from JDS/Cain, and Fox Network specials will have a minimum of two fights. It’s little consolation for those who decided to forego the Facebook prelims or didn’t know about them and missed a fantastic display from Benson Henderson and Clay Guida.

*****

Too much MMA
One of the things MMA fans have complained about over the past year – and I’m certainly one of them – is burnout. At certain times the UFC has operated at a blistering pace, putting on as many as six events in as many weeks. Add that to the weekly (and fantastic) Bellator cards and it becomes a bit too much to take. But let’s put this in perspective: remember when we’d get a UFC once every six to eight weeks? Not only was the wait killing us, but if you’re like me and had the occasional obligation on a Saturday night and missed a card, you had to wait another month or two before you got to see a decent fight again. In that sense, maybe too much MMA isn’t such a bad thing after all.

More Fight of the Year Candidates in the next five weeks (or would be if Shogun and Henderson hadn’t fought last Saturday)
UFC 140 is just two weeks away – I know – and features Mark Hominick taking on the Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung, on the undercard. As star-studded as the card as a whole is – it’s a triple bill featuring Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida, Frank Mir vs. Antonio Minotauro Nogueira, and Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira – Hominick and the Zombie are all but guaranteed to steal the show. Then, just a few weeks later, we get Brock Lesnar taking on Alistair Overeem in the main event of UFC 141 and in the semi-main event a fight featuring two of the most aggressive Lightweights in the world, Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz. And a lot of people seem to be sleeping on the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale between coaches Michael Bisping and Jason “Mayhem” Miller, which I think is going to surprise a lot of people with its intensity. It could be a thoroughly competitive, entertaining affair. Well, so long as Bisping doesn’t stick his chin out and skip in a straight circle like an idiot.

*****

Am I missing something? Probably. But clearly, there’s a lot to be thankful for and a lot to look forward to in the weeks, months, and years to come. So when you’re at your table tomorrow and your elderly grandmother asks you to lead the family in saying grace, take the hands of those next to you and tell everyone that you’re thankful to God and everyone else for the Minotauro brothers, the Korean Zombie, horse meat, and Mayhem.

Amen.