UFC Live 6: Cruz vs. Johnson predictions (Saturday 10/01/11 on Versus)

MATT WIMAN vs. MAC DANZIG
Their first encounter was at UFC 115 in June of last year. Wiman had Danzig in a guillotine choke and Yves Lavigne called off the fight when it appeared from his vantage point that Danzig had passed out. What Lavigne could not see, however, is that Danzig was fine and was actually executing some movement and defense. After over a year of injuries and postponements, the two will finally meet and settle it proper. When they first met, Danzig was on a comeback trail after a revelatory re-evaluation of himself as a fighter, giving him a more collected presence in the Octagon which allowed him to more fully utilize all the weapons in his arsenal. He would have still been outclassed by Wiman in June of 2010, but I honestly believe that despite his ten month layoff, Danzig’s going to come into this an even better fighter than he was when they first met.
PREDICTION: Danzig via Unanimous Decision

ANTHONY JOHNSON vs. CHARLIE BRENNEMAN
Everyone seems to have the young Brenneman inked in for a decision win, which surprises me. Johnson’s had his setbacks, but he’s still a big, dangerous Welterweight with the edge in experience and on his feet. Brenneman deserves props for his upset of Rick Story, but the fight was made literally hours before the event due to Nate Marquardt’s drug test failure and subsequent dismissal (publicly via a Dana White YouTube video) from the UFC. There was a lot of chaos and drama that night, and in that type of a situation it’s very hard to use it to gauge a fighter’s trajectory. Brenneman is giving up a lot of size and experience. His edge may be in grappling, but is he strong enough to take Johnson to the ground and keep him there? I sincerely doubt it.
PREDICTION: Johnson via KO (Round 2)

PAT BARRY vs. STEFAN STRUVE
Pat Barry’s one of my favorite fighters due to his personality and the fact that he always puts on a great show for the fans. But I’m the first to note that he’s the furthest thing from a contender due to his misplaced priorities during fights, his reach disadvantage, and especially his questionable ground game. It’s that last part that will cost him against Stefan Struve, who himself has an incredible advantage in reach at nearly seven feet tall that, due to his style of fighting, he never utilizes. I pick Struve to win here, but he really needs to work out how to maintain a healthy distance with those long arms and legs. He’s a tough kid, but there are diminishing returns in a fighter taking hard shots.
PREDICTION: Struve via Unanimous Decision

DOMINICK CRUZ vs. DEMETRIOUS JOHNSON
As I’ve stated before on this space and to anyone who will listen, I think Cruz is one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. Demetrious Johnson is quick and tenacious, and he’ll make for an entertaining fight. But he, like everyone else right now at 135 pounds, is woefully outclassed by Cruz’s enigmatic footwork and astounding cardio.
PREDICTION: Cruz via Unanimous Decision

UFC LIVE airs Saturday, October 1st at 9:00pm on Versus.

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