This Saturday, the UFC’s doing something unique: an all-heavyweight card. Some injuries have occurred, naturally, that changed it up a bit and may have prevented this from being the supercard the UFC envisioned, but it still promises to be an entertaining evening of slobberknockers.

Gonzaga was literally on this card just long enough to get on the poster and fuck it all up.

UFC 146: FAT GUYS THAT HIT HARD!* 

• Junior dos Santos (c) vs. Frank Mir for the UFC Heavyweight Championship
  Frank Mir steps in for Alistair Overeem, who ate too much damn horsemeat and popped a 14:1 T/E ratio for a surprise drug test that actually shouldn’t have been a surprise given they told him in advance to be prepared to be tested out of competition (, you buffoon). Frank Mir was the first and most logical choice. People seem to think he has no chance, but the story of Frank Mir is littered with situations where fans and fighters underestimated him at their peril. Personally, I was in the camp that thought after that motorcycle accident that he was done being an elite fighter, and yet here we are eight years later and he’s still a contender and legit top five in his division. Still, I think Dos Santos is too quick, hits too hard, and is too wily for Mir.
  PICK: Junior Dos Santos via R1 KO
• Cain Velasquez vs.  Antonio Silva
  This fight was created out necessity because of the Overeem debacle. Cain was Mir’s original opponent, and Silva was scheduled to face Roy Nelson. I think both would have been more intriguing match-ups, though I think this one is going to be a tougher fight for Velasquez than people think. MMA is a very “what have you done for me lately” sport, and as such, the most recent impression people have of Antonio “Big Foot” Silva was his poor display against Cormier last September. However, that fight should come with the disclaimer that Silva is much better than he showed that night and Cormier, then and still to an extent now, is the most underrated fighter in the game. That said, I’m still going with Velasquez, who’s stronger and has a deeper toolbox than Bigfoot. I think he got caught by Dos Santos in the same way every guy eventually does, and I’m convinced a title rematch would have a different outcome. I think we’ll see that happen with a decisive win here.
  PICK: Cain Velasquez via Unanimous Decision
• Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
  Nelson has become a gatekeeper for the division, which some people expected as soon as he was signed by the UFC and won the all-heavyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” As a guy who looks at MMA as more sport than entertainment, Nelson frustrates me because he often trains and fights with the entertainment aspect in mind, and it costs him dearly whenever he has to face a top 5 fighter. Herman has far less experience than Nelson at the upper echelon of MMA, but he’s a wickedly dangerous slugger that can and I think will draw Nelson into the same old bad habits that have cost him in three of his last four fights.
  PICK: Dave Herman via KO R3
• Heavyweight bout: Stipe Miočić vs. Shane del Rosario
  This fight is getting the least attention out of any on the main card, but in my mind it’s the most interesting. Both guys are undefeated against decent competition and have a strong all-around pedigree: Miočić is a fierce striker with a legit collegiate wrestling background and del Rosario is a Muay Thai champion with dangerous Jiu-Jitsu. This one’s as close to a push as you’ll get on this card. I’m going (hesitantly) with del Rosario, though Miočić can pull it off if he can manage to avoid del Rosario’s onslaught and effectively utilize his wrestling.
  PICK: Shane del Rosario via R2 TKO
• Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
  Johnson is the type of fighter that is Struve’s kryptonite: an aggressive heavy-hitter who won’t give him room to recover. Struve has skills and a freakish reach, but he’s also a slow starter with a habit of taking bad beatings before he gets going. I’m going with the upset on this one.
  PICK: Lavar Johnson by R1 KO. 

PRELIMINARY BOUTS

• Featherweight bout:  Mike Brown vs.  Daniel Pineda
• Light Heavyweight bout:  Kyle Kingsbury vs.  Glover Teixeira
• Lightweight bout:  Jacob Volkmann vs.  Paul Sass
  I’m hoping for a knockout win for Sass, just so we don’t have to hear Volkmann’s painfully unfunny dumbass “jokes” afterwards.

LIVE ON FX

• Welterweight bout:  Dan Hardy vs.  Duane Ludwig
• Middleweight bout:  Jason Miller vs.  C.B. Dollaway
  Jason Miller has said that if he can’t win this fight he probably doesn’t belong in the UFC. He’s right, and if that does happen I think Dana White et al will agree.
• Lightweight bout:  Edson Barboza vs.  Jamie Varner
• Featherweight bout:  Diego Brandao vs.  Darren Elkins

* not the actual title of this show

As Mike Chiapetta notes over at MMAFighting.com:

The success of both starts with offense. Both men are among the most prolific offensive heavyweights in UFC history. Actually, they are the most prolific offensive fighters in UFC history among all division. Again, this can be proven with numbers. According to FightMetric, they rank No. 1 and 2 in UFC history for significant strikes landed per minute all-time.

Brazilian MMA journalist Alexandre Matos asked for my pick for MMA-Brasil.com:

Kevin Marshall (Mixed Mashall Arts): Eu vou de Cain. Não há dúvida na minha cabeça. Acho que a única chance de Junior é terminar rápido. Se ele não o fizer, a luta será de Cain. Além disso, acho que Cain é muito inteligente para deixar a luta se tornar um verdadeiro quebra-pau. Vejo perfeitamente Velasquez botando Junior para baixo rapidamente e dominando-o

What, you don’t speak Portugese? Oh, fine. A translation:

 ”I gotta go with Cain. There’s no doubt in my mind. I just feel like Junior’s only going to have a chance to get in there and finish it quick, and if he doesn’t, it’s Cain’s fight. And I think Cain’s too smart to let it get into a total slugfest. I can totally see him taking it to the ground quickly and overpowering him.”

In his last fight, Cain shattered whatever was left of the Brock Lesnar myth. This is not to say Lesnar can’t or won’t be champion again, but Cain made him look human. Strip away the intimidation factor and you have a guy that, although bigger than Cain, was slower and physically weaker. Junior Dos Santos, because of his superior stand-up and conditioning, may be a more dangerous fight for Cain, but like I told Alexandre, I think Cain’s too smart and versatile to not take that fight where he needs to take it. Either way, it’s going to be a Hell of a fight, and in terms of quality and excitement you couldn’t ask for a better bout for the UFC’s network debut.

While the broadcast kicks off live at 9:00pm EST, the undercard starting at 4:45pm on the UFC’s Facebook page will also provide no shortage of interesting match-ups. Most notable is the semi-main event (for the live crowd at least) of former WEC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson taking on Lightweight stalwart and UFC veteran Clay Guida. Dana White has declared that the winner will get the next shot at Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, which I take issue with in light of the absolute tear Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone has been on since joining the ranks and the fact that the #2 Lightweight in the world, Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez, has a fight in two weeks that all but guarantees he’ll be in line as well.

Issues of rankings and placement aside, you couldn’t ask for a better fight than Henderson and Guida. Both are tough as nails, have cardio for days, and fight Japanese (a term I use to describe fighters who for better or worse let the momentum of the fight dictate their style). That said, one of the things that has made Clay Guida more successful over the course of the last year is that he’s fighting less wild and showing a bit more restraint when the leather starts flying. He’s still exciting to watch, mind you, but the difference now is that he dictates the pace rather than chasing after it. In addition to restraint, I thinke he also has an edge in strength and experience.

Surprisingly, Henderson is currently a 5-2 favorite on the books. Personally I think that should be flipped, but Henderson is also the type of fighter I would never put up money against.

More info and the full card is available over at the official site for UFC on Fox.

As a fan of fights, I’m excited. As a booster of the sport, I’m excited.

This is going to be a big litmus test for MMA going forward as a mainstream sport. Bumpers and plugs have been airing throughout the MLB playoffs and NFL games on Fox.

That’s a potentially bigger audience than UFC’s ever had.

In spite of its early bare-knuckle days (if that reads as familiar see also: boxing), it has finally achieved some acceptance, including being legal in all but a small number of states, one of them being New York. But if the UFC is looking at November 12th as an accomplishment, they’re wrong. Even though it’s made some strides, MMA is still seen by the mainstream sports media as a fringe freak show, rather than a respected combat sport.

November 12th isn’t the night that the UFC can say they’ve finally made it. It’s actually their biggest test. How that number shapes up will influence everything going forward.

As for the fight, I have Velasquez.