UFC 125 Predictions: Edgar will Dominate Maynard

After a busy 2010, the UFC wastes no time in getting 2011 off to a thunderous start with UFC 125: Resolution, airing live on pay-per-view tonight at 10:00pm EST from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

The main event pits UFC Lightweight (155 lbs.) Champion Frankie Edgar, coming off against two consecutive wins over arguably the most dominant Lightweight in history in BJ Penn, defending his title against Gray Maynard.

On paper it’s an intriguing match-up. The first time they met in April 2008, Maynard escaped with a split decision win. When Edgar received his first shot at Penn, many pointed to this fight and cried foul and argued that because of the result, Maynard should have received his shot first. Many of those same people are also using it as justification for picking Maynard to come out of the event as the new UFC Lightweight Champion.

The reality of the situation is quite different. In the last two years, Edgar has improved drastically in ways that Maynard hasn’t. While Edgar has strengthened his stand-up and become a quicker and stronger fighter, Maynard has relied largely on the same game plan which, while successful, has shown zero growth as a fighter. In the perpetually evolving landscape of MMA, growth is key. Without it, fighters like Maynard can continue to be successful as gatekeepers, but not much more.

Anyone who thinks we’re going to see anything near the same result tonight, let alone an easy win for Maynard, is in for a surprise. I expect Edgar to come out with a blistering pace, dominating the stand-up whilst avoiding Maynard’s takedowns and tiring him out en route to a Unanimous Decision win.

The other fights on the card, as well as my predictions:

Main Card

Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann
Prediction: Leben via Unanimous Decision. This should be…interesting. Neither is the most technically proficient or skilled fighter, but both have no shortage of heart. Personally, I think Leben’s the tougher fighter and despite appearances possesses better conditioning in the Octagon.

Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva
Prediction: Silva via Unanimous Decision, and we’ll finally be blessed with the opportunity to not have to sit through Vera’s awful fights anymore.

Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Prediction: Diaz via Submission, R2. Kim will make a fight of it, but I see him succumbing to Diaz’s BJJ.

Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi
Prediction: Guida via Split Decision. This one’s going to be a hyper-kinetic slugfest, and it’s going to be close. Gomi I think has improved enough to last against Guida, but Guida is notoriously hard to put down.

Preliminary Fights Airing Live on ION

Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens
Prediction: Stephens via Unanimous Decision.

Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier
Prediction: Grispi via TKO, R1. Grispi was supposed to get a shot at Featherweight champ Jose Aldo, but a neck injury has sidelined Aldo until March at the earliest.

Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares
Prediction: Tavares via Unanimous Decision.

Unaired Preliminary Fights

Mike Brown vs. Diego Nunes
Prediction: Mike Brown via TKO, R1. The fact that Brown is on an unaired prelim while Vera is making the PPV is, in my mind, criminal and horribly misrepresentative of Brown’s skill level.

Daniel Roberts vs. Greg Soto
Prediction: Roberts via submission, R1.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Antonio McKee
Prediction: McKee via Unanimous Decision.